We hear a lot about home well the economy is doing. Certainly the stock market is making money for corporations and brokers, but are people overall benefiting? That can be debated. However, data clearly shows that things are about to change for the worse, and tougher times are probably ahead. What signs are there? Glad you asked.
This graph plots monthly unemployment rate (UR) over time with recessions highlighted. Since 1954, whenever UR falls below 5%, an economic downturn soon follows.